The recent election of Donald Trump marks a significant potential shift in the U.S. climate policy, with implications for both national and global climate efforts. Trump’s long-standing skepticism toward climate science and policy is well-documented. During his campaign, he reiterated his belief that climate change is a “hoax” and promised to undo key climate measures, including rolling back clean energy investments, eliminating incentives for electric vehicles, and re-prioritizing fossil fuel extraction. These promises align closely with his previous term, where his administration withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and rolled back numerous environmental protections, undermining both domestic and international climate action. If similar policies are revived, the U.S. could miss critical climate targets, posing serious challenges to global efforts aimed at limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Here’s a closer look at the potential impact of his win on global climate initiatives.
Potential Rise in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
A major impact could be felt in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Analysis indicates that reversing the climate policies set by the Biden administration could result in an additional 4 billion metric tons of CO₂ emissions by 2030—roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of the entire European Union. This increase could drive the U.S. far from its target of cutting emissions 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030, instead potentially limiting reductions to around 28% under a Trump administration.
Reduced International Leadership on Climate Action
On the international stage, the U.S. absence from global climate leadership could discourage other nations from aggressive climate commitments. Trump’s prior stance of favouring fossil fuel interests and casting doubt on climate science could undermine international cooperation on climate initiatives. Countries relying on U.S. partnership in green technology development and emissions targets may slow their progress if Trump does not prioritize climate policies.
Domestic Impact and “Project 2025”
Domestically, environmental advocates are concerned about “Project 2025,” a Trump-aligned plan to reshuffle civil service roles into politically appointed positions. This initiative could lead to the replacement of environmental experts with individuals less inclined toward enforcing rigorous climate policies, weakening institutions critical to environmental protection. Such a shift could alter enforcement of existing regulations on emissions, water quality, and air pollution, with potentially long-term effects on the nation’s environmental health.
Impact on Global Financing
Under the Biden administration, the U.S. pledged significant funds toward climate finance, including assistance for developing nations in building resilience to climate impacts and transitioning to clean energy. With Trump back in office, this funding could be reduced or entirely withdrawn. This would especially affect developing nations, which rely on financial support to meet their climate goals and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. A reduction in U.S. climate finance could thus hinder progress in many vulnerable regions around the world
Setbacks for International Renewable Energy Transition
Trump’s prior support for fossil fuels and coal, coupled with his skepticism about renewable energy investments, suggests the U.S. could pivot back toward fossil fuel interests. This would weaken momentum for international markets working toward renewable energy advancements, as the U.S. plays a significant role in clean energy innovation and technology exports. Resulting renewable energy policy shifts would hinder the U.S. ability to compete with countries like China in renewable energy and clean technology, potentially allowing China to strengthen its global influence in these sectors.
Implications for Africa’s Climate Action
Many African nations are among the hardest hit by climate change effects, dealing with rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and rising sea-level. These countries have limited resources to tackle these challenges alone and often rely on international funding, technology, and expertise to adapt to climate impacts. Previously, under Trump, the U.S. reduced its contributions to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), a key source of support for climate projects in developing countries. If this funding is reduced again, African nations might face setbacks in essential areas like agriculture, water management, and infrastructure resilience
Additionally, African countries are increasingly turning to renewable energy to fuel sustainable economic growth, aiming to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. These green projects often depend on investment and partnerships with developed nations, including the U.S. However, with Trump’s focus on oil and gas, U.S. support for African renewable projects might take a backseat, potentially slowing the continent’s transition to clean energy. For Africa, these potential shifts could mean a slower path to building resilience against climate impacts and achieving long-term climate goals.
Conclusion
Trump’s election win could make things harder for the global climate movement, especially if his administration steps away from past climate commitments and shifts focus away from clean energy. Without U.S. leadership in climate efforts, there’s a risk that global progress in cutting emissions could slow down, weakening the overall momentum needed to tackle climate change effectively.
