As the global population grows, understanding how demographic changes impact carbon emissions is more important than ever. In countries like Nigeria, where population growth is rapid, these shifts play a key role in emissions per person. This article explores how factors like population size, urbanization, and age distribution affect a nation’s carbon footprint, especially in developing economies, and what this means for future emissions.

Population Growth and Emissions Per Capita

Population growth is a key driver of rising emissions per capita. As a nation’s population grows, the demand for energy, transportation, housing, and food increases, leading to a significant rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In Nigeria, the population has surged from 88 million in 1990 to over 220 million in 2024, and is expected to reach 400 million by 2050, according to the United Nations. This rapid growth is pushing up energy use and transportation needs, directly increasing emissions.

In 2020, Nigeria’s per capita CO2 emissions were approximately 0.6 metric tons, significantly below the global average of 4.5 metric tons, largely due to the country’s lower levels of industrialization and limited energy access. However, as Nigeria’s population grows and urbanizes, emissions are expected to rise. A 2021 study by the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan Africa will increase by 3% annually from 2020 to 2040, with Nigeria playing a significant role in this growth.

While population growth drives higher emissions, the extent of this impact is shaped by how Nigeria adapts to its growth—through technological innovation, improved energy access, and sustainable urban development.

Urbanization and Emissions per Capita

Urbanization is a key factor influencing emissions per capita. As people move from rural areas to cities, their energy use often increases, driven by better access to electricity, transportation, and services. In Nigeria, over 55% of the population now lives in urban areas, with projections showing this will rise to more than 70% by 2050. The World Bank’s 2019 report highlighted that urbanization in developing countries tends to boost energy consumption due to higher demand from industries, transport, and infrastructure. According to the Nigerian Urbanization Review, cities like Lagos and Abuja already struggle with high emissions from traffic, electricity generation, and industrial activities, with urban areas responsible for more than 70% of Nigeria’s total emissions. 

Yet, urbanization also presents a chance to reduce emissions. By adopting cleaner technologies, efficient public transport, and sustainable urban planning, cities can lower their carbon footprints. The Lagos Bus Reform Initiative, which focuses on improving public transport to cut emissions, is a great example of how cities can take action to reduce per capita emissions.

Age Distribution and Emissions per Capita

Age distribution is a crucial factor influencing emissions per capita. In countries with younger populations, like Nigeria, emissions tend to be lower initially, as younger people generally use fewer resources than older, wealthier populations. However, as this youthful generation grows older, earns higher incomes, and consumes more energy, per capita emissions are expected to rise.

Nigeria, with a median age of just 18.1 years (as of 2021), has one of the youngest populations in the world. While this currently keeps emissions lower, the potential for increased consumption as the population matures presents a significant challenge for the future. The World Bank notes that a growing middle class often tied to older age groups drives higher emissions in many developing countries. Without sustainable development strategies, Nigeria could see a sharp rise in emissions per capita in the coming decades.

As the population ages, the demand for energy-intensive services like healthcare, transportation, and housing will grow, pushing emissions even higher. The challenge for Nigeria, and other developing nations, will be finding a way to manage demographic shifts while ensuring that economic growth remains sustainable and emissions are kept in check.

Migration and Its Impact on Emissions

Migration, both within Nigeria and internationally, is a growing trend that significantly impacts emissions. As people move from rural areas to cities or from less developed regions to more industrialized ones, their carbon footprints often rise due to changes in their consumption habits. 

In Nigeria, the shift from rural to urban living has been a major factor in increasing emissions, as urban lifestyles tend to be more energy-intensive. Similarly, international migration, particularly to Europe or the United States, often leads to higher consumption and greater emissions as individuals adopt more resource-heavy lifestyles. However, migration can also bring benefits. According to the World Bank, migrants can introduce innovative practices and sustainable technologies, helping to reduce emissions through the knowledge and technologies they carry with them.

The Way Forward: Policies to Mitigate Emissions Growth

As Nigeria’s population continues to grow, there are key policy measures that can help prevent unsustainable increases in emissions:

• Investing in Renewable Energy: Shifting to solar, wind, and hydroelectric power can separate economic growth from rising carbon emissions, even as the population expands.

• Sustainable Urbanization: Cities can reduce emissions by prioritizing green buildings, energy-efficient infrastructure, and clean public transport. With thoughtful planning, urban growth can become a force for sustainability.

• Promoting Low-Carbon Technologies: Supporting the adoption of electric vehicles, clean cooking solutions, and other low-carbon innovations will be essential to managing emissions as the population grows.

• Climate-Smart Agriculture: Implementing climate-smart farming practices in rural areas can cut emissions and build resilience to climate impacts, benefiting both the environment and local communities.

• Engaging Youth and Education: With a young population, investing in education on sustainable practices will foster long-term changes in consumption and lifestyles.

Conclusion

Demographic changes like population growth, urbanization, and age distribution play a key role in driving emissions per person. In Nigeria, these trends could lead to higher emissions unless effective measures are put in place. While the pressures of a growing population will challenge efforts to cut carbon emissions, the right investments in renewable energy, sustainable cities, and low-carbon technologies offer a path forward. By acting now, Nigeria can manage the impact of demographic growth on emissions and build a sustainable, resilient future for generations to come.